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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.