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While world leaders convene in the Brazilian Amazon for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is essential to evaluate how we are faring together in cutting global greenhouse gas emissions.

In spite of three decades of United Nations climate conferences, approximately half of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been released after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 marked the publication of the initial scientific evaluation by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which verified the threat of human-caused global warming. As scientists work on the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so knowing that scientific findings remains eclipsed by political influences. Regardless of well-intentioned efforts, the world is remains far from the path to avert dangerous global warming.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels hit a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in 2024, with the growth rate from the previous year surging by the largest yearly increase since modern measurements began in the late 1950s. Based on the Global Carbon Project, 90% of worldwide carbon dioxide output in last year originated from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the other tenth was due to land-use changes such as deforestation and wildfires.

Although the rise in fossil CO₂ emissions in recent times was driven by increased use of natural gas and petroleum—accounting for more than 50% of global emissions—the use of coal also attained a historic peak, making up 41%. In spite of the previous climate summit's evaluation urging nations to transition away from carbon fuels, collective plans still aim to extract over twice the quantity of hydrocarbons in the year 2030 than aligns with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, with continued extraction of gas rationalized as a less polluting transition fuel.

The Illusion of Eco-Friendly Measures

Instead of concentrating on financial motivators to speed up the phase-out of carbon fuels, climate policies are overly dependent on feel-good eco-positive approaches that seek to neutralize CO2 output by afforestation rather than cutting industrial emissions. While protecting, enlarging, and restoring natural carbon sinks like forests and marshes is beneficial in itself, studies has shown that there is insufficient territory to achieve the global goal of net zero emissions using nature-based solutions by themselves.

Roughly 1 billion hectares—a territory larger than the USA—is required to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. More than forty percent of this land would need to be converted from existing uses like agriculture to carbon sequestration projects by the year 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Even if this regenerative utopia could be realized, forests take time to mature and can burn down, so they should not be viewed as a fast or lasting CO2 retention method, particularly in a fast-changing climate. As extreme heat and aridity engulf more of the planet, these well-intentioned efforts could actually be destroyed by fire.

The Weakening of Natural Carbon Sinks

Scientific evidence tells us that about 50% of the carbon dioxide released each year remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder is taken up by seas and terrestrial systems. As the planet warms, these environmental absorbers are becoming less effective at soaking up CO₂, which means that more carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, intensifying climate change. Shifting the mitigation burden onto the land sector effectively excuses the fossil fuel industry from the urgency to reduce emissions any time soon.

The Carbon Debt and Coming Populations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on land-based measures to soak up surplus CO2 from the air. Polluters can easily buy carbon credits to compensate for their emissions and proceed with business as usual. At the same time, the energy imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons continues to further destabilise the global climate system. In effect, we are increasing our climate liability to our planetary credit card, passing on our descendants with an insurmountable burden.

To limit the scale and length of exceeding the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the planet eventually needs to go well beyond the balancing impact of carbon neutrality and begin to drawdown cumulative historical emissions to reach net negative emissions.

The Policy Misrepresentation of Net Zero

Based on the latest numbers from the Global Carbon Project, vegetation-based CDR is currently absorbing the equivalent of about five percent of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while engineered carbon extraction accounts for only about a tiny fraction of the carbon released from carbon sources. Optimistic sector projections place it at around zero point one percent of total global emissions. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of net zero is an insidious loophole that takes focus away from the scientific imperative to eliminate the main source of our overheating planet—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

Although this research-backed truth should dominate discussions at the climate summit, past events suggests that gradual, cautious steps and political kowtowing will win out. Vague statements of future ambition will continue to delay the pressing requirement for definite short-term measures. Until policymakers are brave enough to put a price on carbon to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are releasing increasing amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, worsening the physical catastrophe now unfolding all around us.

The dilemma we confront is simple: genuinely respond to the evidence-based situation of our crisis or suffer the consequences of this deep ethical lapse for generations ahead.